Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the latest in a series of adverse developments affecting the global economy and the financial markets. Since October 2021, we have become increasingly concerned about the market situation. At the time, we realized the significance...
Like astrologists, investment managers are expected to publish at least once a year theirfinancial forecasts. And similarly to astrologists, they usually oblige and publish a long list ofapparently well-supported predictions. Like astrologists, investment managers are expected to publish at least...
In these last weeks leading to the US presidential election the actuality is dominated by the highly acrimonious and not unentertaining diatribes between the candidates. According to the polls a Clinton victory seems much likelier than a Trump win. However,...
We are opening this quarterly review with this recent quote from legendary bond investor Bill Gross as it addresses what is maybe the most critical financial issue of the time(1). While the first three months of 2016 have largely been...
The first half of 2021 has proven very favorable to financial markets. This was due to a convergence of three important factors: low interest rates defendable valuation levels ongoing recovery from the covid crisis The first factor is likely to...
Despite the covid crisis, the stock market is again trading near all-time highs, especially the tech stocks. Valuations are rich, in particular for the NASDAQ which is trading at a price-multiple earnings of 40. When valuations reach levels which are...
Ray Dalio’s optimistic call has recently drawn the attention to gold in view of the strong record of this investor and of his hedge fund Bridgewater Capital. Since the dawn of humanity gold has fascinated man with a universal appeal....
2019 has so far proven another good year for the financial markets. Since the big financial crisis of 2008 markets have moved most of the time up. This is in spite of a macro environment with considerable tensions and headlines...
On March 27, 2019 the US Yield Curve inversed. More precisely the spread between the 10- years and the 3-months Treasuries. This event generated many alarming headlines and is significant. The yield curve is one of the most closely followed...
2018 was an exceptionally challenging year for international investors. In some respects it has proven even more challenging than the big financial crisis of 2008. During the financial crisis some asset classes still managed to generate appreciable returns, particularly US...
One of the most striking aspects of the global economy is how complex it is and how it is influenced by an immense numbers of parameters which are often not well understood and hardly predictable. Although it incorporates mathematical tools...
The first half of 2018 has been weak for virtually all asset classes except the particularly volatile commodity sector. In equities the S&P 500 was almost flat (+1.7%) and most other equity markets were flattish or down -3% to -5%....