The first half of 2021 has proven very favorable to financial markets. This was due to a convergence of three important factors: low interest rates defendable valuation levels ongoing recovery from the covid crisis The first factor is likely to...

2015 proved a tough year for investors worldwide. All asset classes suffered declines with almost no place to hide. Bonds were affected by the expectation for the hike in US interest rates which the Fed finally announced on December 16....

We are opening this quarterly review with this recent quote from legendary bond investor Bill Gross as it addresses what is maybe the most critical financial issue of the time(1). While the first three months of 2016 have largely been...

To the surprise of most observers the Brexit happened. The most immediate impact has been a sharp drop of the British pound which lost 11%, an exceptionally brutal move. The impact on the stock markets has been very limited. European...

In these last weeks leading to the US presidential election the actuality is dominated by the highly acrimonious and not unentertaining diatribes between the candidates. According to the polls a Clinton victory seems much likelier than a Trump win. However,...

The November surprise happened! While the world has gotten used to it in the meantime, less than two months ago the prospect of a Trump presidency looked remote. This development was unexpected to most, both to political experts and to...

The period following the big financial crisis of 2008, has been characterized by an extreme, almost abnormal level of stability for a long period of eight years. Markets have risen steadily and most of the major global economies were able...

If you follow financial matters and sometimes talk about this subject with others, one sentence you might have heard in the last 5-10 years was: “How can you make money when the interest in the bank is zero?” This resigned,...

2017 ended up as another strong year in the decade long bull market. Almost all major asset classes produced excellent returns particularly the equity markets with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high. After so many years of strong...

The first half of 2018 has been weak for virtually all asset classes except the particularly volatile commodity sector. In equities the S&P 500 was almost flat (+1.7%) and most other equity markets were flattish or down -3% to -5%....

One of the most striking aspects of the global economy is how complex it is and how it is influenced by an immense numbers of parameters which are often not well understood and hardly predictable. Although it incorporates mathematical tools...

2018 was an exceptionally challenging year for international investors. In some respects it has proven even more challenging than the big financial crisis of 2008. During the financial crisis some asset classes still managed to generate appreciable returns, particularly US...